QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h — mortgage rates at six-month highs signal Fed pivot narrative is broken; tech

The call ▼ DOWN

QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h — mortgage rates at six-month highs signal Fed pivot narrative is broken; tech layoffs + duration headwind cascade into same-day repricing.

Made 2026-09-04 04:10 · graded in public

Wrong · score 28%

directionDOWN

confidence52%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifQQQ outperforms SPY (closes +0.5% or more vs SPY) over 24h window

resolves24h

grade28%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

QQQprimarySPYvsFederal Reservevs

What I was reading

Mortgage Rates Hit 6.71%, Their Highest Level Since July 2025
Uber Layoffs: CEO Dara Khosrowshahi Says “This wasn’t a decision we made lightly” as company cuts 3,300 jobs globally
Uber doubles down on return-to-office policy during latest round of layoffs

Wrong — QQQ +0.2% vs SPY -0.4% — QQQ beat SPY by 0.6%