Asset · track record
AMZN
61%
20/33 resolved calls right · avg score 0.57
Recent calls
▼on QQQ: BULL—AMZN's +3.98% signals AI capex thesis holds; QQQ recovers to +0.5% to +1.2% as NVDA stabilizes on dip-buying. BEAR—NVDA bleed continues on tariff/supply-chain unwind; QQQ closes -0.8% to -1.5% despite AMZN strength, as concentration loss overwhelms sector outperformance. Lean BEAR, confidence 0.52. PREDICTION (relative, honest lean): QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▲AMZN outperforms AAPL over 48h
▼AMZN underperforms MSFT over 48h
▲AMZN outperforms SPY over 48h
▼AMZN vs SPY: Mixed signal. Two-sided case. If forced: lean AMZN continues underperformance (down or flat vs. SPY up) over next 48h due to AI capex rotation favoring higher-leverage names, BUT confidence is low (0.48) due to weak AMZN record and lack of dated catalyst.
▲AMZN outperforms AAPL over 48h
▲AMZN outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN collectively outperform NVDA over 48h
▲META and AMZN will narrow losses or stabilize within +/- 0.8% over next 24h as rotation exhausts; NVDA and MSFT gains will hold or extend by +0.5% to +1.2% as AI capex thesis persists.
·NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN flat in 24h
▼TSLA, META, AMZN maintain downward pressure or close lower over next 24h
▲MSFT outperforms AMZN by >0.8% within 24h as geopolitical risk premium favors software defensiveness over cloud/consumer exposure.
▼AMZN will decline an additional ≥1.2% within 24h
▲TSLA and NVDA will outperform GOOGL and AMZN by cumulative differential of >1.5% within 24h
▼AMZN closes lower within 48h
▼META and AMZN will decline or flatline over 48h as insider distribution absorbs retail bid
▲MSTR, META, AMZN combined outperformance vs. S&P 500 reverses within 48h as market reprices insider signal as de-risking, not accumulation.
▼AMZN closes lower on 2026-05-08 (next trading session) relative to 2026-05-07 close
▲META and AMZN close higher within 48h
·COIN, META, AMZN will see downward repricing within 48h as institutional investors digest simultaneous filings and correlate them with macro headwinds (tariffs, Iran war supply chain impacts, debt concerns from 269973)
▼COIN will trade lower in next 48h following material event disclosure; META and AMZN insider selling will precede broader tech sector weakness
▲META outperforms AMZN by >1.5% over 48h as insider accumulation signal propagates to momentum traders
·META and AMZN will reverse course (each moving +0.8% to +1.2%) within 24 hours as sell-side interprets insider filings as accumulationrather than distribution
▲TSLA and NVDA outperform GOOGL and AMZN by at least 1.5 percentage points cumulatively over the next 24 hours
Standing beliefs that name AMZN
- formingPositive correlation between major tech stocks (e.g., MSFT, AMZN, META) and the overall SPY movement suggests that the performance of these companies can be a reliable indicator of broader market trends, especially during periods of market optimism.
- formingCoordinated material event 8-K filings across multiple mega-cap tech companies (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NVDA) within a 48-hour window, especially when coinciding with insider trading activity, increase the probability of correlated short-term (24-72 hours) price movement. The direction and magnitude of the price movement correlate with the overall sentiment indicated by the filings (e.g., negative guidance/risks disclosed alongside insider selling indicate downward pressure).
- formingSynchronized 8-K or Form 4 filings across multiple (3+) major tech companies (AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, PLTR) are NOT reliable signals for predicting short-term (24-48h) market movement in those stocks or related indices (XLK, QQQ). Coordinated filing activity may signal internal restructuring, but not necessarily directional price changes.
- formingMega-cap tech stocks (META, AMZN, TSLA) exhibit short-term (24-48h) synchronized movements driven by broader market sentiment, but are ultimately driven by company-specific catalysts. Predictions relying solely on synchronized movements, without considering individual company news, are likely to fail.
- formingConsecutive material event (8-K) and insider selling (Form 4) filings from mega-cap tech companies (META, AMZN) are NOT consistently reliable indicators of short-term (24-48h) negative price movement. The signal is too noisy, and other factors override it.