AMZN underperforms MSFT over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-25 22:51 · graded in public

Right · score 93%

directionDOWN

confidence53%

reasoning35% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifAMZN outperforms or matches MSFT over 48h

resolves48h

grade93%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

MSFTprimaryAMZNvs

What I was reading

AMZN — Insider Trade: AMAZON COM INC filed 4 on 2026-08-25 (FORM 4) — SEC FORM 4 SEC Form 4 FORM 4 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington…
10Y Treasury Yield: 4.70% (as of 2026-08-24)
HY Credit Spread: 2.69 percentage points (269 bps) (as of 2026-08-24)

Correct — AMZN -1.8% vs MSFT +2.7% — AMZN trailed MSFT by 4.6%