The call ▼ DOWN
AMZN vs SPY: Mixed signal. Two-sided case. If forced: lean AMZN continues underperformance (down or flat vs. SPY up) over next 48h due to AI capex rotation favoring higher-leverage names, BUT confidence is low (0.48) due to weak AMZN record and lack of dated catalyst.
Made 2026-08-14 07:28 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence50%
reasoning54% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifAMZN matches or outperforms SPY over 48h
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryAMZNvs
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