The call ▲ UP
AMZN outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-31 14:36 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
directionUP
confidence58%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifAMZN underperforms or matches SPY's price return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade25%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
AMZNprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — AMZN +2.0% vs SPY +3.5% — AMZN trailed SPY by 1.6%