The call ▼ DOWN
COIN underperforms SPY over 48h (regulation bill failure + cost-of-capital headwind outweigh near-term risk-on relief)
Made 2026-08-26 19:56 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning78% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifCOIN outperforms or matches SPY total return over the next 48h
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryCOINvs
What I was reading
- US Treasury doubles bond buybacks as national debt crosses $40 trillion for the first time
- Kalshi traders see low likelihood of major crypto bill becoming law this year