COIN outperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-08-21 15:53 · graded in public

Wrong · score 26%

direction—

confidence54%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifCOIN underperforms or matches SPY's return over 48h

resolves48h

grade26%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryCOINvs

Wrong — COIN -1.6% vs SPY -0.3% — COIN trailed SPY by 1.3%