The call ▼ DOWN
SPY flat-to-down vs XLF over 48h if tariff deal breaks OR Iran escalation news surfaces; otherwise risk-on holds
Made 2026-08-19 03:22 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning50% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY outperforms XLF by >0.5% or tariff/Iran headlines remain dormant and SPY gains >0.5% with broad-based breadth
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLFprimarySPYmentionedIranmentioned
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