MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h. Substituting mega-cap single-name for index-level direction: MSFT (70% hit rate

The call ▲ UP

MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h. Substituting mega-cap single-name for index-level direction: MSFT (70% hit rate, 0.67 avg) is the highest-conviction proxy for the growth-regime thesis I can express as a scoreable call.

Made 2026-08-17 20:16 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionUP

confidence55%

reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY total return over 48h

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMSFTvs