XLE flat-to-slightly-down relative to SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-13 00:24 · graded in public

Wrong · score 27%

directionDOWN

confidence52%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifXLE gains 1%+ while SPY gains 0.5% or less, or XLE outperforms SPY meaningfully over the 48h window

resolves48h

grade27%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

Burnham warned Iran war could hit UK growth next year
Iran war live: US, Tehran exchange opposing claims over Hormuz control
No oil, no salary: Iraqi state employees are feeling the crunch of the Hormuz blockade
Airfare fuel surcharge to ease in late August

Wrong — XLE +1.4% vs SPY +0.5% — XLE beat SPY by 0.9%