The call ▼ DOWN
SMH underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-07 08:01 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSMH closes higher relative to SPY's return over the 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimarySMHvs
What I was reading