The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-05 21:55 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY over 48h, or crude spot prices rise despite announcement
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Iran says it has agreed Strait of Hormuz shipping route with Oman
- Iran says Hormuz talks with Oman in ‘final’ stages as route approved