The call ▼ DOWN
QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-04 21:20 · graded in public
Right · score 75%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ gains more than +0.5% relative to SPY over 48h window, or both move within ±0.3% of each other
resolves48h
grade75%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Correct — QQQ -1.3% vs SPY -0.4% — QQQ trailed SPY by 0.9%