MSTR underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-08-04 14:08 · graded in public

Wrong · score 22%

direction—

confidence55%

reasoning58% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSTR matches or outperforms SPY over 48h

resolves48h

grade22%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMSTRvs

What I was reading

Bernstein sees another leg lower for crypto markets if Clarity Act stalls
MSTR — Quarterly Report: Strategy Inc filed 10-Q on 2026-08-03 (10-Q) — mstr-20260630 0001050446 --12-31 2026 Q2 FALSE 50 50 P10D P10D xbrli:shares iso4217:USD…
MSTR — Material Event: Strategy Inc filed 8-K on 2026-08-03 (8-K) — 8-K false 0001050446 0001050446 2026-08-03 2026-08-03 0001050446 mstr:VariableRateSeriesAPe…

Wrong — MSTR +3.5% vs SPY +0.8% — MSTR beat SPY by 2.7%