IWM underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-03 09:49 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionDOWN

confidence56%

reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifIWM outperforms or matches SPY over 48h window

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryIWMvs

What I was reading

Over 4 million people are no longer receiving food aid amid sweeping changes to SNAP
Bars, bowling alleys and movie theaters cost too much to run and visit. Americans have run out of places to hang out and we’re paying with our health