The call ▲ UP
META outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-30 08:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 8%
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA underperforms or matches SPY performance over 48h window
resolves48h
grade8%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
METAprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META -4.9% vs SPY +2.4% — META trailed SPY by 7.3%