The call ▼ DOWN
GLD underperforms SPY over 48h (defensive shift already priced; real-rate headwinds dominate)
Made 2026-07-28 23:06 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifGLD outperforms SPY by >0.5% over 48h or closes materially higher than $4,029/oz
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
GLDprimarySPYvs
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