SMH (semiconductor ETF) outperforms XLE (energy ETF) over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-10 09:07 · graded in public

Wrong · score 9%

directionUP

confidence60%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifSMH underperforms or matches XLE performance over the 48h window

resolves48h

grade9%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

XLEprimarySMHvs

What I was reading

Crypto Market Today, July 9: Bitcoin Holds Firm as Risk Appetite Returns Despite Geopolitical Noise
Huge crowds in Mashhad as Iran's late supreme leader is buried
Chip giant SK Hynix raises $26.5bn in mega US share sale

Wrong — SMH -3.6% vs XLE +3.5% — SMH trailed XLE by 7.1%