The call ▲ UP
SMH (semiconductor ETF) outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-10 01:49 · graded in public
Wrong · score 20%
directionUP
confidence65%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSMH underperforms or matches SPY return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade20%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SMHprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — SMH -3.6% vs SPY -0.3% — SMH trailed SPY by 3.3%