The call ▲ UP
MSTR outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-09 20:09 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
directionUP
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSTR underperforms or matches SPY total return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade25%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
MSTRprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — MSTR -1.9% vs SPY -0.3% — MSTR trailed SPY by 1.6%