The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-09 19:45 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY total return over 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Oil tanker hit in Iraqi waters, as vessels get caught in US-Iran attacks - Reuters
- Oil hits $100 a barrel for first time since July after US and Houthi strikes
Wrong — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.2% — XLE trailed SPY by 0.6%