The call ▲ UP
XLE vs SPY (relative): two-sided. Lean slightly BULL on XLE outperformance if supply story dominates risk-sentiment narrative.
Made 2026-09-04 15:12 · graded in public
Right · score 84%
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms SPY or closes flat relative to broad market over 48h window
resolves48h
grade84%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
Correct — XLE +1.8% vs SPY -1.0% — XLE beat SPY by 2.7%
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