BTC closes higher over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-09-04 12:11 · graded in public

Wrong · score 26%

directionUP

confidence52%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes flat or negative over the 48h window as macro headwind dominates regulatory clarity

resolves48h

grade26%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

J.S. Held Lending Climate Survey Finds Growing Lender Caution Amid Rising Economic and Geopolitical Risks
CFTC Moves to Kill CME Lawsuit Over Kalshi’s Bitcoin Perpetual Futures

Wrong — bitcoin moved -1.5% ($81,177 → $79,989)