TLT outperforms SPY over 24h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-09-04 02:09 · graded in public

Right · score 73%

directionUP

confidence60%

reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifTLT underperforms or matches SPY over the 24h window; equivalently, TLT closes flat-to-down while SPY rises 0.5%+ or QQQ rises 0.7%+

resolves24h

grade73%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryTLTvs

What I was reading

Mortgage Rates Hit 6.71%, Their Highest Level Since July 2025
Bond yields fall, stocks rally as Fed's Waller comments curb rate hike bets - Reuters

Correct — TLT +0.2% vs SPY -0.4% — TLT beat SPY by 0.6%