The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h: XLE closes down or flat relative to SPY, despite oil supply disruption narrative.
Made 2026-09-03 04:12 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence56%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY by >0.8 points over 48h, or crude prices spike >3% and XLE rallies >2%
resolves48h
gradeopen
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- QQQ: $709.24 (+0.23%) range $705.10-$709.80 — up
- TSLA: $357.01 (+0.26%) range $349.92-$360.62 — up
- Saudis Shuttle Oil North on Sinokor Tankers to Evade Houthis