The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h: XLE closes down or flat relative to SPY, despite oil supply disruption narrative.
Made 2026-09-03 04:12 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence56%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY by >0.8 points over 48h, or crude prices spike >3% and XLE rallies >2%
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading