The call ▲ UP
SPY outperforms SMH over 48h
Made 2026-09-02 19:46 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionUP
confidence57%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSMH outperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade23%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimarySMHvs
Wrong — SPY +0.6% vs SMH +3.1% — SPY trailed SMH by 2.4%
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