The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-02 14:44 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
directionUP
confidence57%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade25%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
Wrong — XLE -1.1% vs SPY +0.5% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.5%
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