MSTR underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-09-02 10:39 · graded in public

Wrong · score 0%

direction—

confidence51%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSTR outperforms SPY or trades flat-to-up relative to SPY over 48h

resolves48h

grade0%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMSTRvs

What I was reading

Strategy Slams MSCI's Proposed Index Exclusion as "Fundamentally Flawed," Demands Withdrawal

Wrong — MSTR +16.0% vs SPY +1.5% — MSTR beat SPY by 14.5%