BTC underperforms its 50d moving average over 24h; ETH remains flat-to-up relative to BTC

The call FLAT

Made 2026-08-29 10:22 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

direction—

confidence52%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes +0.5% or higher over the 24h window, or no measurable change in on-chain transaction volume friction

resolves24h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

BitcoinprimaryEthereumvs

What I was reading

SEC proposes Regulation Crypto Assets to bring back token fundraising under new rules
KuCoin can block your crypto transactions even if you never sent it to these 17 sanctioned platforms