COIN underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-08-28 22:19 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

direction—

confidence51%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifCOIN closes level or higher vs SPY over 48h, or Fed/Powell speaks to delay rate hikes, or crypto settlement volumes (EURC on-chain) spike +20% intraday

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryCOINvs

What I was reading

Fed's Kevin Warsh warns inflation is too high, sparking bets rate hikes are coming
EURC leads euro stablecoin market with $526M cap and 63% share
Rallied After the White House Crypto Summit. Can Regulation Fix its Rate Sensitivity?