Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-07
July 2026
426 scored predictions, 218 right, 208 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.260 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 69 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 0 | insufficient | — | — |
| 40-60% | 281 | 55% | 54% | +1% |
| 60-80% | 144 | 64% | 52% | +12% |
| 80-100% | 1 | insufficient | — | — |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 419 | 53% | 211 |
| world | 7 | 83% | 7 |
Top hits
- 1.00META underperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: META outperforms or matches SPY over 48h] trail →
- 1.00SMCI outperforms QQQ over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: SMCI underperforms or matches QQQ over the 48h window] trail →
- 1.00MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: MSFT underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window] trail →
Top misses
- 0.00TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: TSLA underperforms or matches SPY's daily return over the 48h window] trail →
- 0.00TWO-SIDED: Bull case—TSLA outperforms SPY if 8-K reveals guidance raise or AI/margin recovery narrative [DIRECTION: up]. Bear case—TSLA underperforms SPY if profit miss is confirmed forward and margin trail →
- 0.00TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: TSLA underperforms or matches SPY over 48h window] trail →