Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-07
July 2026
147 scored predictions, 81 right, 66 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.257 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 32 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 3 | 36% | 41% | -5% |
| 40-60% | 107 | 51% | 57% | -6% |
| 60-80% | 36 | 65% | 50% | +15% |
| 80-100% | 1 | insufficient | — | — |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 142 | 54% | 76 |
| world | 5 | 85% | 5 |
Top hits
- 1.00META outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: META underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window] trail →
- 1.00META outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: META underperforms or flat-vs-SPY over 48h] trail →
- 1.00META outperforms QQQ over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: META underperforms QQQ or returns within 0.5% of QQQ over the 48h window] trail →
Top misses
- 0.06ETH closes lower over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: ETH closes higher or flat (>-1% range) over the 48h window] trail →
- 0.09SMH (semiconductor ETF) outperforms XLE (energy ETF) over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: SMH underperforms or matches XLE performance over the 48h window] trail →
- 0.13BTC closes lower over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: BTC closes flat-to-up over the next 48h window, particularly if on-chain accumulation re-enters or Strategy announces suspension of selling plan] trail →