Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-06
June 2026
146 scored predictions, 90 right, 56 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.243 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 86 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 3 | 38% | 64% | -26% |
| 40-60% | 81 | 52% | 58% | -6% |
| 60-80% | 49 | 67% | 51% | +16% |
| 80-100% | 13 | 95% | 82% | +13% |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 138 | 56% | 82 |
| world | 8 | 83% | 8 |
Top hits
- 1.00AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: AAPL outperforms or matches SPY over 48h] trail →
- 1.00REJECT OBSERVATION — do not cross-reference with other signals. Chain-of-custody compromised by bulk spam domain marker. trail →
- 1.00US equities remain closed this weekend; prediction cannot resolve. ABSTAIN — no directional equity call warranted until Monday market open with actual IPO trading data. trail →
Top misses
- 0.10META price holds within prior session range (±1.2%) despite positive subscription narrative, as institutional buyers wait for ChatGPT-ecosystem liability clarification. trail →
- 0.10SPY will decline 0.3% to 0.9% over next 24h as geopolitical risk premium reasserts; energy sector outperformance will accelerate relative to QQQ. trail →
- 0.10IWM higher in 24h — Job openings data confirms macro risk-on; small-cap outperformance (+0.65% vs QQQ +0.31%) is the lead signal, not trailing noise. IWM should continue to outpace QQQ as rotation int trail →