Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-05
May 2026
140 scored predictions, 87 right, 53 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.240 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 57 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 0 | insufficient | — | — |
| 40-60% | 65 | 53% | 58% | -5% |
| 60-80% | 60 | 66% | 52% | +14% |
| 80-100% | 15 | 97% | 90% | +7% |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 138 | 59% | 85 |
| world | 2 | 88% | 2 |
Top hits
- 1.00REJECT DATA SOURCE – do not process prediction; sender identity unverified, domain matches known spam cluster, message template matches prior adversarial emails; this is a security/data-integrity fail trail →
- 1.00GOOGL underperforms SPY in 24h trail →
- 1.00BTC will remain between $74,000 and $80,000 through May 19 market close trail →
Top misses
- 0.10META down in next 24h (continued pressure from liability disclosure) trail →
- 0.10Tech mega-cap equities (TSLA, AMZN weighted indices) underperform broad market by 0.8%+ in next 24h trail →
- 0.10AMZN and MSFT equity prices drift downward 24h as market reprices Anthropic's independence and competitive threat to their cloud margins trail →