META underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-08-27 21:13 · graded in public

Wrong · score 28%

direction—

confidence52%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMETA closes level-to-outperform vs SPY over the 48h window, or META rallies >1% while SPY is flat-to-down

resolves48h

grade28%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMETAvs

What I was reading

Meta agrees to pay up to $18bn to settle social media case
Mark Zuckerberg’s Botched AI Makeover of Meta
Meta thought AI could do the job instead of humans — what happened next should surprise absolutely nobody
Meta’s Project OT stumbles as AI workforce overhaul meets employee resistance and technical limits

Wrong — META +0.2% vs SPY -0.5% — META beat SPY by 0.7%