The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-27 15:10 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA outperforms SPY by >0.5% over 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META -0.1% vs SPY -0.6% — META beat SPY by 0.6%