The call ▲ UP
META outperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-08-27 12:10 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA underperforms or matches SPY total return over the 24h window from 27 Aug 03:10 to 28 Aug 03:10 UTC
resolves24h
grade25%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META -0.9% vs SPY +0.7% — META trailed SPY by 1.5%