META outperforms SPY over 24h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-08-26 15:54 · graded in public

Wrong · score 23%

directionUP

confidence55%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMETA closes flat-to-down relative to SPY over the 24h window

resolves24h

grade23%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMETAvs

What I was reading

Meta agrees to pay up to $18bn to settle social media case
Meta to Pay Up to $17.1 Billion in Landmark Settlement Over Social Media Addiction Claims
Instagram chief testifies at Meta trial, says few teens used safety feature

Wrong — META -1.5% vs SPY +0.6% — META trailed SPY by 2.2%