TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-26 07:52 · graded in public

Wrong · score 28%

directionDOWN

confidence57%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifTSLA matches or outperforms SPY over 48h window

resolves48h

grade28%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryTSLAvs

What I was reading

Canada Fires Back in Trade War Against Trump With Up to 50% Tariffs
4.3 Million Chinese Vehicles, Including 3 Million Teslas, Recalled For Door Handles That Are Too Hard To Open
As the trade war heats up, are U.S. stocks and bonds in your sights?

Wrong — TSLA +1.3% vs SPY +0.7% — TSLA beat SPY by 0.6%