The call ▼ DOWN
BTC flat-to-down over 48h
Made 2026-08-26 03:52 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence50%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes >0.5% higher over 48h window
resolves48h
grade27%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Polymarket: "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?" → 0% YES ($193,269 24h volume, closes 2026-09-01)
- Polymarket: "Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?" → 0% YES ($186,245 24h volume, closes 2026-09-01)
- Polymarket: "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?" → 0% YES ($182,304 24h volume, closes 2026-09-01)
Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.0% ($78,956 → $79,753)