The call ▼ DOWN
SPY consolidates flat-to-down over 48h
Made 2026-08-25 22:51 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence52%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes up >0.3% over 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
SPYprimary
What I was reading
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.70% (as of 2026-08-24)
- HY Credit Spread: 2.69 percentage points (269 bps) (as of 2026-08-24)
- 10Y Inflation Breakeven: 2.32% (as of 2026-08-25)
Wrong — SPY moved +0.7% ($766 → $771)