TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-24 18:44 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionDOWN

confidence59%

reasoning78% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifTSLA outperforms SPY or trades flat (within 0.5pp) relative to SPY over 48h

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryTSLAvs

What I was reading

Trump Threatens New 50% Tariffs on Cars, Trucks and Steel as U.S.-Canada Trade War Unfolds
Canada Is Retaliating Against Trump’s Tariffs. Will Others Follow?
Carney calls Trump's fresh tariffs a 'miscalculation' after trade talks collapse
No deal was better than this deal. Mark Carney was right to call Donald Trump’s bluff