The call ▼ DOWN
on QQQ: Lean slightly BEARISH vs SPY but acknowledge equal probability of flat-to-up if geopolitical events don't catalyze within 48h.
Made 2026-08-24 16:29 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence52%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ outperforms SPY over 48h by >50bps
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
The mind's full note
TWO-SIDED on QQQ: Lean slightly BEARISH vs SPY but acknowledge equal probability of flat-to-up if geopolitical events don't catalyze within 48h.
SPYprimary
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