USO flat-to-up over 24h; leans UP on genuine Hormuz escalation narrative, but two-sided given risk-on regime a

The call ▲ UP

USO flat-to-up over 24h; leans UP on genuine Hormuz escalation narrative, but two-sided given risk-on regime absorption.

Made 2026-08-24 02:18 · graded in public

Wrong · score 25%

directionUP

confidence58%

reasoning70% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifUSO closes down or flat over 24-48h window despite Iran headlines

resolves24h

grade25%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

USOprimary

Wrong — USO moved -1.8% ($135 → $132)