The call ▼ DOWN
Bitcoin closes lower on August 22 vs. August 21 close.
Made 2026-08-22 05:15 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence56%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBitcoin closes flat or higher on August 22
resolves24h
gradeopen
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Polymarket: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 22?" → 54% YES ($156,246 24h volume, closes 2026-08-22)
- Canada says it will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break down
- U.S. imposes 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian products