The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-20 22:25 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionDOWN
confidence59%
reasoning70% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA outperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade23%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
Wrong — META +2.4% vs SPY +0.1% — META beat SPY by 2.3%
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