The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-20 04:02 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
Wrong — META +0.7% vs SPY -0.4% — META beat SPY by 1.1%
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