The call ▲ UP
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-08-20 03:52 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionUP
confidence55%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE closes higher than SPY over the 48h window, or SPY underperforms its own intra-period range
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump and Canada’s Carney Seem to Make Progress on a Tariff Deal, but Questions Linger
- Trump pauses new tariffs on Canada and says countries close to a deal
- US, Canada agree deal that pauses 50% tariffs, Trump says
- Canada secures 11th hour deal to avoid Trump’s 50% tariffs