IWM underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-20 00:51 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionDOWN

confidence58%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifIWM outperforms or matches SPY through Wednesday close

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryIWMvs

What I was reading

Some Canadian businesses already facing tariff collection ahead of Wednesday deadline
Carney and Trump speak again as tariff deadline looms