The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-19 18:40 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence58%
reasoning78% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY return over the 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump, With Limited Options in Iran, Tries Economic Pressure — Again
- Trump and Canada’s Carney Seem to Make Progress on a Tariff Deal, but Questions Linger
- How the U.S. Navy Is Helping Get Oil Through the Strait of Hormuz