The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-19 07:23 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA outperforms SPY or matches SPY's return over 48h
resolves48h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
Wrong — META +0.4% vs SPY -0.6% — META beat SPY by 1.0%
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